The disturbing spectre of two self-styled ‘strongmen’ meeting in Alaska to discuss the fate of Ukraine suggests they both want to turn the clock back to the pre-1848 world order.

Trump and Putin seem to want to pull the world back toward a pre-1848 style of governance when constitutions were seen as dangerous concessions to popular sovereignty; censorship was rampant; and security networks spied on dissenters.

The defeat of Napolean at Waterloo in 1815 ended a quarter-century of revolution and war and ushered in the ‘Concert of Europe’ era.

[destacate]Trump and Putin seem to want to pull the world back toward a pre-1848 style of governance when constitutions were seen as dangerous concessions to popular sovereignty; censorship was rampant; and security networks spied on dissenters[/destacate]Conservative monarchies in Austria, Britain, Prussia and Russia sought to restore stability through reactionary politics. They opposed constitutionalism and suppressed popular movements showing preference for stability over liberty.

In short, the pre-1848 world was one in which rulers saw themselves as the natural guardians of order, above popular accountability. The post-1848 trajectory pointed toward mass politics, rights-based governance and legal limits on rulers’ power.

The overriding fear was that the spirit of the French Revolution — liberté, egalité, fraternité— would spread again. Leaders like Austria’s Chancellor von Metternich were determined to preserve a hierarchical, paternalistic order. 

Shattered

The ‘Revolutionary Year’ of 1848 shattered this conservative consensus. In a matter of months, uprisings swept Paris, Vienna, Berlin, Milan, and Budapest. Although many revolts were crushed, they left a legacy: the demand for constitutions, rule of law, and representative institutions could no longer be ignored.

Over the next decades, constitutional monarchies became more common, parliaments gained real powers, and the liberal idea that governments derived authority from the governed steadily advanced. 

Fear of revolution in the Netherlands caused King Willem II, for example, to ‘convert from conservatism to liberalism overnight’ (his own words) to allow the Dutch their constitution.

[destacate]His foreign policy also borrows from 19th-century conservatism: using force to suppress revolutions, defending the sovereignty of authoritarian allies and opposing any international system that gives supranational law precedence over state will[/destacate]Vladimir Putin’s worldview strongly echoes the pre-1848 mindset. Since coming to power in 1999, he has systematically dismantled democratic institutions in Russia. Independent media outlets have been suppressed or brought under state control.

Elections are tightly managed, with real opposition figures jailed, exiled, or eliminated. The judiciary is subordinated to the executive. Putin often frames his policies as opposing ‘morally decadent’ and ‘destabilising’ Western liberalism.

His foreign policy also borrows from 19th-century conservatism: using force to suppress revolutions in his sphere (e.g., Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and 2022), defending the sovereignty of authoritarian allies (Syria’s Assad), and opposing any international system that gives supranational law precedence over state will.

Putin resembles a 21st-century Metternich: seeking to maintain a ‘concert’ of great powers that respect each other’s spheres of influence and keep popular uprisings in check — not because he loves stability for its own sake, but because it preserves his own authority and that of leaders like him.

Contempt

Donald Trump’s position is more complex. Unlike Putin, he operates within a constitutional democracy that he cannot openly abolish. Yet his actions and speech consistently challenge the constitution.

Trump expects personal loyalty to override loyalty to institutions or the law. In blatant contempt for checks and balances, he describes independent judges, a free press, and congressional oversight as ‘enemies’ or ‘obstacles’.

His calling the army into Washington DC this week on flimsy grounds is a consolidation of his brute power base in the capital. Trump rejects multilateral commitments, preferring bilateral deals between strong leaders, a logic closer to 19th-century diplomacy undermining the post-1945 rules-based order enshrining rights, constitutions, and democratic accountability.

His ideal of a strong leader insulated from legal and institutional constraints is reminiscent of a pre-constitutional ruler. His admiration for ‘strongmen’ such as Putin, Orbán, and Erdoğan reinforces this impression.

[destacate]Trump rejects multilateral commitments, preferring bilateral deals between strong leaders, a logic closer to 19th-century diplomacy undermining the post-1945 rules-based order enshrining rights, constitutions, and democratic accountability[/destacate]Putin fears that democratic norms and human rights standards will empower Russian citizens against him. Trump fears that the entrenched norms of American governance — constitutional limits, independent courts, bureaucratic checks — will block his will.

Both prefer a system where leaders negotiate directly, without interference from ‘meddlesome’ legislatures, journalists, or international bodies.

Of course, the global stage has changed since the 19th century, when there was no supranational law, and institutions like the UN, EU, and ICC embody the principle that some norms are universal and binding. Yet both men resist those ideals. 

Trump and Putin show a clear instinct to return to a world in which strong rulers dominate the political stage, insulated from popular accountability, negotiating power directly with other strong rulers.

Their political visions seek to suppress the structures that embody the ideals of liberty, equality, and the rule of law. Both men are specialists in truth-distortion.

We have always expected that from Russia. It is sickening and shameful that this is now coming from America of all places – thanks to millions of Christian voters!

As long as both these men are in power, world peace and freedom will totter on the precipice. 

P.S. These are precarious days. What happens in Ukraine affects our future world order. Ukrainian believers have made an urgent appeal for believers everywhere to link hands around the world in fervent prayer on their 34th National Independence Day, August 24, for a just and lasting peace. President Zelensky will personally launch a prayer chain from the St Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv that Sunday morning, to culminate in his address to the National Prayer Breakfast the next day.

Jeff Fountain, Director of the Schuman Centre for European Studies. This article was first published on the author's blog, Weekly Word.