The end of the Assadist regime in Syria brings together many factors that coincide in an intersection of forces and interests for whom either it was not worth defending the status quo at this point, or on the other hand, it was the opportunity to end thirteen years of civil war.

The international media and analysts alike have been surprised by the speed with which the various rebel groups have taken from the regime the majority of the land it controlled just a fortnight ago.

How can a thirteen-year long and worsening internal conflict be over in just a few days?

The truth is that, as in all armed conflicts, there are pendulum swings between the opposing forces. Some gain strength at a specific moment and take advantage of it. And then, if they have not been defeated, the same happens to the others.

Some causes of a quick fall

Four years ago, al-Assad was relatively close to victory.

He had received direct support from a Russia that had not yet launched its campaign in Ukraine, significant support from a Hezbollah that had not yet been attacked by Israel, and the backing of an Islamic Republic of Iran that had not yet been worn down either by the war in the Strip or the mass protests of 2021 and 2022.

In 2020, al-Assad was keeping the rebels at bay with the help of Russian fighter bombing. Moreover, by 2019, the international coalition of countries, the Syrian Democratic Forces rebels and the Kurds had done much of the president's work by defeating all the positions of the self-proclaimed Islamic State on Syrian territory.

However, for Russia and Turkey (which has all these years supported rebel groups in the north to fight, above all, against the Kurds), a ceasefire was better suited.

In those four years, the various rebel groups, and especially Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have taken advantage of the situation to grow stronger and gain support in order to wait for the moment when al-Assad's government could no longer defend itself or receive outside help.

What next?

While Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Khalali has pledged to stay in Syria (unlike al-Assad, who is in Moscow with his family) and offered to support a transition process, the question now is what will happen in the country.

When one looks at the current map of Syria, in the north there are two strips of territory adjoining the Turkish border that are entirely controlled by Ankara-backed rebel groups, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now expected to reclaim his war 'trophies'.

Part of those 'trophies' involves fighting Kurdish militias, which virtually control the entire northeast of the country.

In the south there are regions controlled by different rebel groups, which are reportedly taking control of major cities such as Deraa, while a 'coalition' of rebel forces has arrived in Damascus from Aleppo.

All this range of groups also means an amalgam of seemingly irreconcilable interests beyond seeing the al-Assad family out of power.

The Kurdish militias are focused on autonomy for their government in northern and eastern Syria, controlling the important city of al-Raqa.

Turkey is unlikely to miss the opportunity to confront the Kurds in its pursuit of the independent Kurdish Kurdistan Workers' Party. This could result in de facto Turkish control of areas where the rebels it supported were a majority.

Israel, which has had tensions since 1967 with Syria over the Golan Heights (annexed to the state of Israel in 1981), could also take advantage of the situation to reinforce its control in southern Syria.

In fact, the Israeli army admits that it is conducting operations in the Quneitra region and has even asked the civilian population to stay at home.

Among the rebels who have reached Damascus, there is also a real hodgepodge.

From groups that have remained opposed to the al-Assad regime since the beginning of the war for strictly political and humanitarian reasons, to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, so far considered a terrorist organisation by the US, UK and others because of its former links to al-Qaeda, and which seems to have claimed that it aims to establish some kind of Islamic government in Syria.

It remains to be seen how such diversity will coexist now that the common goal (overthrowing al-Assad) has disappeared.

Cases such as Libya and Iraq still resonate in the collective imagination, where the inability to form stable governments after the Arab Spring, in the case of Tripoli, and the occupation by the United States and the Islamic State, has led to other wars or regional conflicts.

What about Christians in Syria?

Political instability often works against religious freedom.

In the case of Syria, among the many human rights violations committed by the al-Assad governments (father or son), religious freedom was not one of them.

For the regime, religion was not a threat as long as it stayed out of political issues. Added to this is the country's long historical tradition of the Orthodox Church of Antioch, one of the oldest Christian denominations in the Middle East.

It seems unlikely that with US influence still present in the country, where it has 900 military personnel to 'guarantee' stability in the east in the face of the presence of some jihadist hotspots, an Islamic government will be established immediately.

However, the situation allows for many possible scenarios and, as we have already seen after 13 years of civil war, human rights are repeatedly subjected to geostrategic interests.

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[title]One more year[/title]

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